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Strategy of the Week
For information on other commodities please refer to our current issue of the
Newsletter.
19 Jul 2010
Firmer on tightening supply Barley was the benefactor of some strong global and local improvements in the wheat market this week.
With barley trading locally at around a A$50/t discount to wheat and concerns surrounding the lower supply across the Black Sea, Canada and lower acreage across the EU and Australia the barley market was well supported. At these price discounts we can expect to see inclusion rates of barley in the feed ration to remain high.
Further still, with limited global carry-in stock of malt barley and the problems in Canada and still a spring to get through in Australia, the malt market remains very jittery and has pushed its premiums across Australia to A$70-80/t over feed barley for new crop.
Old crop markets remain very illiquid as farmers focus on wheat sales and are willing to carry barley given the prices on offer, whilst the consumer still seems surprisingly comfortable with the coverage they have on.
The recently softer global milk price might be creating a little bit of caution in the VIC market and be keeping demand for barley slow. Adding to the retention of barley by the farmer is the current carry structure that has built into the market.
For example, in the eastern states new crop feed barley is paying around A$190/t delivered port. With barley on-farm, it may cost the grower only another AU$5-6 to finance it until harvest and get paid around A$160-170/t delivered local silo, a lot better than the current A$140-150/t ex-farm bid.
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